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\title{The Role of Transfer Payments in Mitigating Shocks}
\author{Tatyana D}
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\begin{abstract}
Stuff
\end{abstract}
\section{Introduction}
Extreme weather events are a large and growing source of
negative economic shocks. Larger population densities, ecosystem alteration,
and population movements to hazardous areas are causing real damages
from natural disasters to rise \citep{board_ondisasters1999}. World
insured losses have exceeded \$11 billion per year every year since
1987, reaching \$53 billion in 2004 \citep{kunreuther_michelkerjan2007}.%
\footnote{Unless stated otherwise, all monetary amounts have been converted
to 2008 dollars using the Consumer Price Index. Uninsured losses are
difficult to estimate, but a rule of thumb is that they are about
as large as the insured losses in developed countries and about ten
times larger in developing ones.%
} Economic losses between 1992 and 2001 averaged \$49 billion a year
\citet{freeman_etal2003}. Damages are likely to continue growing as
climate change is expected to increase the number and intensity of
extreme events\citep{meehl_etal2007,schneider_etal2007}. \citep{freeman_etal2003}
estimate that damages will reach \$367 billion a year by 2050, a 750
percent increase in real terms. But the economic impacts of extreme
weather are neither predetermined nor random: they depend not only
on the meteorological strength of the event, but also on the policies
and infrastructure in place \citep{zeckhauser1996}. However, we know
little about the economic impacts of natural disasters over time or
the role of institutions and policy in mitigating them.
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